Daily Player Projections
HR candidates, batter stat projections, and pitcher strikeout targets — computed daily before first pitch from fresh simulation and Statcast data.
// MLB PROJECTION RESEARCH ENGINE
DAILY MLB PROJECTIONS. EVERY SLATE.
Data-driven player and game projections for every MLB slate. Confidence tiers, park context, odds comparison, and calibration — all in one research platform.
HR probability rankings for today's slate
Park & Weather Context
Venue-adjusted projections factor in ballpark dimensions and current weather conditions. Camden Yards is not Coors Field.
Confidence Tiers
Six tiers from NUCLEAR to AVOID, calibrated against historical outcomes. Color and icon signals so you never rely on color alone.
Game & Team Projections
Over/under totals, team run projections, and win probability estimates — derived from the same underlying simulation model.
Odds Comparison
Compare projection outputs against current market lines. Surface value in the data and see when the model disagrees with the market.
Backtesting & Calibration
Rolling calibration windows show how well each model tier predicts actual outcomes. Brier scores and accuracy by tier across 30-day windows.
- Nuclear — Strongest signal. Rare and highly actionable.
- Elite — High-confidence projection. Favorable matchup confirmed.
- Strong — Solid opportunity. Worth including in research.
- Viable — Marginal edge. Review context before including.
- Longshot — Below-average signal. Situational use only.
- Avoid — Model says skip. Clear pass for this slate.